Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
