A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
